November 2005

The current issue of New Scientist is reporting that researchers believe that Mount Pinatubo was responsible for an increasing rate of sea level rise that was observed in the mid to late 1990’s. The average sea level increase from 1950 to present is roughly 1.8 millimeters a year. After Mount Pinatubo erupted, sea level rates rose at nearly 3.2 millimeters a year!

John Church of the CSIRO in Australia has combined observations of the oceans’ heat content with climate simulations to calculate that ocean surface temperatures fell by up to 0.5 °C in the months after the eruption in 1991 (Nature, vol 438, p 74). Since cooling reduces the water’s volume, he calculates that Pinatubo should have taken 5 millimetres off sea levels worldwide during this period.

Since then, the oceans have been regaining heat, but this warming happens more slowly that it does in the atmosphere. Church calculates that the Pinatubo rebound explains half of the surge in sea level rise measured by satellites between 1993 and 2000.

Scientists at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory have recently completed running a simulation dealing with the long term effects of fossil fuel use on the global climate. The results are quite humbling to say the least. If the current pace of fossil fuel use were to continue for the next 300 years, average global temperatures would increase by 14.5 degrees Fahrenheit and ocean levels could increase by 21 feet! Also, CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere would increase from 340ppm today to over 1200ppm.

These are the stunning results of climate and carbon cycle model simulations conducted by scientists at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. By using a coupled climate and carbon cycle model to look at global climate and carbon cycle changes, the scientists found that the earth would warm by 8 degrees Celsius (14.5 degrees Fahrenheit) if humans use the entire planet’s available fossil fuels by the year 2300.

The jump in temperature would have alarming consequences for the polar ice caps and the ocean, said lead author Govindasamy Bala of the Laboratory’s Energy and Environment Directorate.

There are a few problems with this article that I didn’t see addressed, namely that of petroleum, which some scientists speculate has anywhere for 30 - 50 years of use left. The United States, the world’s leader in coal reserves, has enough coal to last for about 285 years.

We have previously discussed peak oil here as well.

250 years ago today, on November 1st of 1755 at 9:20 in the morning, a great earthquake struck the unsuspecting city of Lisbon, Portugal. The quake, as well as the tsunami and fires that followed completely devastated the city, destroying nearly 85 percent of all buildings. Upwards of 90,000 died is Lisbon alone, while across the Straight of Gibraltar, another 100,000 were thought to have perished in Morocco.

The Prime Minister Sebastião de Melo (the Marquis of Pombal) survived the earthquake. “Now? Bury the dead and feed the living,” he is reported to have said, and with the pragmatism that characterized his coming rule, the Prime Minister immediately began organizing the recovery and reconstruction.

He sent firefighters into the city to extinguish the flames, and ordered teams to remove the thousands of corpses. Time was short to dispose of the corpses before disease spread. Contrary to custom and against the wishes of representatives of the Church, many corpses were loaded onto barges and buried at sea beyond the mouth of the Tagus. To prevent disorder in the ruined city, and, in particular, as a deterrent against looting, gallows were constructed at high points around the city and at least 34 were executed. The Portuguese Army was mobilized to surround the city to prevent the able-bodied from fleeing, so that they could be pressed into clearing the ruins.

Via Wikipedia and About.com.