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Sep 20 / Dave Schumaker

Anticipating the “Big One”

The San Francisco Chronicle has an article on a major earthquake striking the Bay Area and asks if those of us who live here are prepared for what may happen. Based on historical data, that 20th century was fairly quiet for the Bay Area, in terms of the number of severe earthquakes. And don’t be misled by “a few decades”: Statistically speaking, the coming quake is literally as likely to strike, say, next month or next Christmas — or in two minutes — as it is in 2031, the final year of the time window analyzed by the probability study. The group’s overall forecast was that there is a 62 percent probability of at least one 6.7-or-stronger quake between 2002 and 2031.

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