August 2005

A former professor at Princeton University, Kenneth Deffeyes, is predicting that “peak oil”, when the global oil production and output reaches a maximum level before it starts to decline, will happen this November. This contrasts to what the U.S. government, as well as other scholars and organizations are predicting. The problem, he determined, was that no one appreciated how scarce the stuff had become. He soon found that several respected researchers had already applied Hubbert’s methods to the current world oil supply and determined the peak would arrive between 2005 and 2008. Deffeyes did the calculations himself and pinpointed the peak at Thanksgiving of this year. The exactness of the prediction is somewhat tongue in cheek, but Deffeyes’ point — that the peak has either already arrived or will very soon — is quite serious. [...] In the long term, the nation will compensate with clean-coal and nuclear energy, along with renewable sources like wind and solar power, Deffeyes said. “It’s the five-year time scale that I’m really scared about,” he said. There are many who doubt his theories. Economists, in particular, believe the supply and demand equation will spur innovation and conservation, and the problem will take care of itself. The article says that the U.S.G.S. predicts we will reach peak oil production in 2037, though other sources (including this very informative USGS open-file report [408kb PDF file]) predict peak oil will be reached around 2020. Crackpot theory or something to think seriously about?

CNN reports that 30 earthquakes have shook the Galeras volcano, located in Colombia, since Saturday. This has raised fears of a possible eruption though the government has not upgraded the volcano warning levels. More than 30 temblors have occurred within 10 kilometers (6.2 miles) of the Galeras volcano beginning Saturday, geologist Roberto Torres said. Several had a magnitude near 5 and seven were strong enough to be felt by people. “The tremors are small in earthquake terms, but in terms of the volcano, they are notable,” said Torres, of the government’s Geology and Mines Institute. Galeras erupted in 1993, killing 9 people, including 5 volcanologists monitoring the volcano who were caught inside the crater.

Last weekend I was on a small vacation in Lake Tahoe, which is a place I’ve never been to before. The expanse and clarity of that lake is amazing. It also reminded me of an article I read (but did not post) back in July from Physorg.com, on the clarity of Lake Tahoe and how scientists use it to determine how healthy the lake is. The article can be found here. A recent study concludes that the clarity of the lake is the highest it’s been since 1991, however the overall trend for the clarity of the lake has actually been going down. Reuter emphasized that restoration efforts by scientists and public agencies in the Tahoe Basin are focused on the long term. “We can say why the clarity changed for a particular year,” he said, “but we should not confuse that with the trend over many years, which is that there is a decline in the clarity of the lake.” UC Davis researchers measure the lake’s clarity every seven to 10 days by lowering a white, dinner-plate-sized disk (called a Secchi disk) into the water at fixed locations and noting the depth at which the disk disappears from sight. Also see more information from UC Davis.

Deposits of rubies have been found in Greenland and were recently confirmed by a Canadian geologist. However, an unfortunate side effect is that this opens up the possibility of increased commericial exploitation of Greenland and the rest of the Arctic region. “In this particular area, the conditions have been favorable for forming a number of rare minerals,” said Richard Herd from the Geological Survey of Canada. The only question remaining is whether or not rubies exist in large enough deposits for full-scale mining operations, Herd told CanWest News Service. “It’s like looking for gold,” Herd said. “The gold is there, but it’s the grade and the tonnages that make it an economically viable operation.”

Ron Schott submitted the following press release from the USGS, detailing a new geologic map that has been completed for the region in and around Las Vegas. You can read the press release here. While the saying may be, “What happens in Vegas stays in Vegas,” the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is sharing dirt about the geology of the Las Vegas region with the release of a new geologic map. The USGS map was designed to respond to land-use issues and challenges that Las Vegas is experiencing due to rapid urbanization. Using GIS-based earth science information, the map can be used to investigate major issues such as water supply and quality, land subsidence due to ground-water withdrawal, and seismic and flood hazards. Las Vegas is one of the fastest growing areas in the United States, and as such is faced with quite a few problems thanks to its location.