A former professor at Princeton University, Kenneth Deffeyes, is predicting that “peak oil”, when the global oil production and output reaches a maximum level before it starts to decline, will happen this November. This contrasts to what the U.S. government, as well as other scholars and organizations are predicting. The problem, he determined, was that no one appreciated how scarce the stuff had become. He soon found that several respected researchers had already applied Hubbert’s methods to the current world oil supply and determined the peak would arrive between 2005 and 2008. Deffeyes did the calculations himself and pinpointed the peak at Thanksgiving of this year. The exactness of the prediction is somewhat tongue in cheek, but Deffeyes’ point — that the peak has either already arrived or will very soon — is quite serious. [...] In the long term, the nation will compensate with clean-coal and nuclear energy, along with renewable sources like wind and solar power, Deffeyes said. “It’s the five-year time scale that I’m really scared about,” he said. There are many who doubt his theories. Economists, in particular, believe the supply and demand equation will spur innovation and conservation, and the problem will take care of itself. The article says that the U.S.G.S. predicts we will reach peak oil production in 2037, though other sources (including this very informative USGS open-file report [408kb PDF file]) predict peak oil will be reached around 2020. Crackpot theory or something to think seriously about?
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3 comments
Monday, August 22, 2005 at 11:41 pm
nit
What happen after “peak oil”? Do we need to worry about driving solar cars soon?
Tuesday, August 23, 2005 at 10:11 am
Dave
Peak oil basically means that we will eventually see a maximum output for oil production and then oil production will decline at a rate roughly equal to how it initially grew.
So overtime, oil will become more scarce and more expensive. Eventually, this will force us to look into alternative energy sources (be it solar, hydrogen, nuclear).
In the short term, we probably don’t have to look at driving solar powered cars, but according to most predictions, this is something we’re going to have to start seriously thinking about within the next 30 - 50 years.
Many car companies are starting to develop hybrid vehicles and more research is being done into fuel cells as well.
Wikipedia has a good article on peak oil also.
Tuesday, August 23, 2005 at 12:09 pm
Julien Marchand
Toyota aims for converting all their fleet to hybrid cars in 5 years. It’s something that should be encouraged and might lead the other companies to do so.
I agree with Dave, saying that we have to look for alternative energy sources, and I say we must do it as soon as possible, if we want to have the technology up and running by the time oil starts to lack.