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May 18 / Dave Schumaker

USGS Earthquake Forecasting Website

This is damn cool. And perhaps it might even be useful one day. Anyway, the USGS has released a new webpage that is updated hourly, predicting the probability of “strong shaking” in any part of California within the next 24 hours. According to this Yahoo News article, it is based on a number of factors. The earthquake forecast maps are created by considering a variety of factors, including seismic monitoring of the San Andreas Fault and other active faults in California. Scientists also factor in any recent history of small and large temblors and aftershocks on those same faults. This article from the SF Chronicle is much more informative. Lastly, here is an Open File Report on these forecasts from the USGS, written in 2004.

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